Main principles and data sources

Monthly VEB GDP index is a leading indicator for quarterly GDP dynamics. Its estimation is based on the production method using available monthly data. Aggregation of GDP indices is done using average annual prices of the previous year.

Year-on-year change in GDP is estimated using Federal State Statistics Service’s monthly data on changes in production of goods and services in major industries. Based on this data, we estimate indices of value added in the main industries.

Estimate of net taxes on products and imports is done using Federal State Statistics Service’s data on production of excise goods, Ministry of Energy’s preliminary data on the volume of exports of oil and gas, Customs Service’s data on imports from non-CIS countries and VEB experts’ assessment.

Month-on-month change in GDP adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors is estimated using an indirect method, i.e., the key components of GDP are seasonally adjusted and then are aggregated into the overall index. We additionally do seasonal adjustment using a direct method (by directly adjusting the GDP index).

In case of sizeable differences between the adjustments done using indirect and direct methods, the series are normalized by distributing the difference between the two series across adjusted elements.

Nominal GDP is estimated using assessment of the overall deflator index (year-on-year), which aggregates deflators of the main components of value added and net taxes on products and imports.

The calculations are based on Federal State Statistics Service’s monthly data on the change in the value of shipment of own production goods, data on activities and own services in mining, manufacturing, production and supply of electricity, gas and water.

The main components of the deflator of net taxes on products are assessed using the dynamics of consumer prices, changes in the exchange rate, changes in the prices of excise goods and changes in world oil prices. The calculations are performed using an algorithm which is used to determine the value added volume indices of the main GDP components.